Untitled

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JAN 20, 2025
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[1] WPG -137 (2u) @ UTAH
REASONING:
- Stats: WPG 31-12-3 (3.57 GF/G) vs UTAH 18-19-7 (2.80 GF/G)
- Special: WPG PP 32.6% (#1) vs UTAH PK 81.6%
- H2H: WPG 11-0 last 11, outscoring 40-19
- Form: WPG 5-5-0, UTAH 3-7-0
RESULT: LOSS (-$2)
NOTES: H2H streak broken, possible regression spot missed

[2] CBJ +138 (1u) @ NYI
REASONING:
- Stats: CBJ 22-17-6 (3.47 GF/G) vs NYI 17-20-7 (2.66 GF/G)
- Special: CBJ PP 23.5% vs NYI PK 67.0%
- H2H: CBJ 3-7-2 last 12
- Form: CBJ 7-3-0, NYI 5-5-0
RESULT: LOSS (-$1)
NOTES: Poor H2H record proved predictive despite form advantage

Day Total: -$3
Running Total: -$4

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JAN 22, 2025
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[1] NYR -122 (2u) vs OTT
REASONING:
- Multiple edges compound: schedule spot, metrics, H2H
- Ottawa on B2B, signs of fatigue
- NYR home ice advantage significant
- Advanced metrics: NYR better possession/xG
RESULT: WIN (+$1.64)
NOTES: Schedule spot proved crucial, edges compounded as predicted

[2] CAR +110 (2u) @ DAL
REASONING:
- Superior metrics (Corsi 58.98% vs 52.30%)
- Better xG% (55.92% vs 53.10%)
- Dallas PDO (1008) due regression
- Price undervalued Carolina's advantages
RESULT: WIN (+$2.20)
NOTES: Advanced metrics proved predictive, found value as underdog

[3] EDM -156 (2u) vs WSH
REASONING:
- Better in all key metrics
- Strong H2H history
- WSH PDO (1029) due regression
- Multiple edges aligned for favorite
RESULT: LOSS (-$2)
NOTES: High price proved costly despite multiple advantages

Day Total: +$1.84
Running Total: -$2.16