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import pylab
import pygame
import random
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from copy import deepcopy
from numba import jit
import matplotlib as plt
plt.use("Agg")
import pygame
from pygame.locals import *
plt.rcParams.update({'figure.max_open_warning': 0})
import matplotlib.backends.backend_agg as agg
#%%
epoch = 366 # период который рассматриваем 366
limit_time_illness = 21 # T1 время болезни
limit_time_vaccine = 90 # время действия иммунитета от вакцины
limit_time_immun_con = 90 # T2 время действия иммунитета после болезни
probability_immun_abs = 0 # p1
probability_infect = 0.15 # p2
probability_lethal = 0.01 # p3
probability_virus_carrier = 0.1 # p4 вероятность появления больного
time_found_illness = 7
#%%
matrix_offsets = np.array(
[[1,1,1],
[1,1,1],
[1,1,1]])
dy = matrix_offsets.shape[0] // 2
dx = matrix_offsets.shape[1] // 2
N = matrix_offsets.shape[0]
dict_of_colours = {0: "black",
1: "darkolivegreen3",
2: "lightcoral",
3: "lightskyblue",
4: "khaki1"}
#%%
dx, dy
#%%
data = {"вероятность заражения при контакте": [],
"вероятность смерти во время болезни": [],
"процент людей с иммунитетом": [],
"число локальных контактов": [],
"население": [],
"число живых": [],
"процент мёртвых": []}
df = pd.DataFrame(data=data)
df
#%%
info = pd.DataFrame(data=data)
info
#%%
def gameOver(surface):
surface.fill(pygame.Color('black'))
font = pygame.font.SysFont("comicsansms", 32)
red = (255, 0, 0)
green = (0, 255, 0)
words = font.render("Вирус захватил мир!", 1, red, green)
while True:
for event in pygame.event.get():
if event.type == pygame.QUIT:
pygame.quit()
surface.blit(words, (800,500))
pygame.display.update()
#%%
def generate_left_border(states):
rand_vector = np.random.sample(states.shape[2])
states[1][0] = ((states[1][0] + rand_vector) <=
probability_virus_carrier) + 0
#%%
def generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun=0,
percent_vaccinated_people=0):
rand_matrix = np.random.sample((states.shape[1]-1, states.shape[2]))
states[2][1:states.shape[1]] = ((states[2][1:states.shape[1]] + rand_matrix) <=
probability_immun_abs + add_abs_imun) + 0
rand_matrix = np.random.sample((states.shape[1]-1, states.shape[2]))
states[3][1:states.shape[1]] = ((states[3][1:states.shape[1]] + rand_matrix) <=
percent_vaccinated_people) + 0
#%%
# TODO:
def create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_limit):
new_row = [probability_infect, probability_lethal, add_abs_imun, local_limit, states.shape[2] * states.shape[1],
(states.shape[2] * states.shape[1] - np.sum(states[0])) / states.shape[2] / states.shape[1] * 100,
np.sum(states[0]) / states.shape[2] / states.shape[1] * 100]
df.loc[len(df)] = new_row
return True
# %%
def visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE):
surface.fill(pygame.Color('white'))
global green, black, red, yellow, blue
for event in pygame.event.get():
if event.type == pygame.QUIT:
pygame.quit()
[pygame.draw.line(surface, pygame.Color('darkslategray'), (x, 0), (x, HEIGHT)) for x in range(0, WIDTH, TILE)]
[pygame.draw.line(surface, pygame.Color('darkslategray'), (0, y), (WIDTH, y)) for y in range(0, HEIGHT, TILE)]
green, black, red, yellow, blue = 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
for x in range(0, states.shape[2]):
for y in range(0, states.shape[1]):
# жив - зелёный
colour = dict_of_colours[1]
# мёртв - чёрный
if states[0][y][x] == 1:
colour = dict_of_colours[0]
black += 1
# болен - красный
elif states[1][y][x] == 1:
colour = dict_of_colours[2]
red += 1
# приобретённый имун - жёлтый
elif states[4][y][x] or states[3][y][x]:
colour = dict_of_colours[4]
yellow += 1
# абс имун - синий
elif states[2][y][x]:
colour = dict_of_colours[3]
blue += 1
green = 2500 - yellow - red - blue - black
pygame.draw.rect(surface, pygame.Color(colour), (x * TILE + 2, y * TILE + 2, TILE - 2, TILE - 2))
# green = (WIDTH*HEIGHT)//10//TILE-yellow-red-blue-black
return black, red, yellow, blue, green
pygame.display.update() @jit(nopython=True)
def update_cell(states, times, local_limit=1):
# если мёртв и абс имун - скип
# если болен
# return 0
H = states.shape[1]
W = states.shape[2]
times[0] = times[0] + (times[0] != 0)
# если умер
rand_matrix = np.random.sample((H, W))
died_people = (times[0] > 0) * (times[0] <= limit_time_illness) * (rand_matrix <= probability_lethal) * states[1]
states[0][1:H] += died_people[1:H]
# если переболел
recovered_people = (times[0] > limit_time_illness) + 0
states[4] += recovered_people
times[2] += recovered_people
times[0] = times[0] * (died_people == 0) * (recovered_people == 0)
states[1] = states[1] * (died_people == 0) * (recovered_people == 0)
# если переболел
times[2] = times[2] + (times[2] != 0)
with_imun = (times[2] <= limit_time_immun_con) * (times[2] > 0)
states[4] = states[4] * with_imun
times[2] = times[2] * with_imun
# если вакцинирован
times[1] = times[1] + (times[1] != 0)
with_vaccine = (times[1] <= limit_time_vaccine)
states[3] = states[3] * with_vaccine
times[1] = times[1] * with_vaccine
# если здоров
infected_people = np.zeros((5, H + 2 * dy, W + 2 * dx))
infected_people[:, dy:H + dy, dx:W + dx] = states
width_time_0 = np.zeros((H + 2 * dy, W + 2 * dx))
width_time_0[dy:H + dy, dx:W + dx] = times[0]
number_infected_people = np.sum(states[1]) / (W * H - H) * local_limit * probability_infect
for x in range(dx, W + dx):
for y in range(dy + 1, H + dy):
random_matrix = (np.random.sample((N, N)) <= (probability_infect + number_infected_people)) * matrix_offsets
random_matrix = random_matrix * (width_time_0[y - dy:y + dy + 1, x-dx:x + dx + 1] <= time_found_illness)
random_matrix = random_matrix * np.min((states[1:5, y - dy, x - dx] == 0))
random_matrix = random_matrix * (infected_people[0][y-dy:y + dy + 1, x - dx:x + dx + 1] == 0)
random_matrix = random_matrix * infected_people[1][y-dy:y + dy + 1, x - dx:x + dx + 1]
random_matrix = random_matrix * (infected_people[3][y-dy:y + dy + 1, x - dx:x + dx + 1] == 0)
random_matrix = random_matrix * (infected_people[2][y-dy:y + dy + 1, x - dx:x + dx + 1] == 0)
random_matrix = random_matrix * (infected_people[4][y-dy:y + dy + 1, x - dx:x + dx + 1] == 0)
states[1][y - dy][x - dx] += np.max(random_matrix)
times[0][y - dy][x - dx] += np.max(random_matrix)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def gist(red, black, yellow, blue):
index = [0, 1, 2, 3, 4]
values = [red, black, yellow, blue]
# plt.ylim([0, 1500])
# plt.xlim([0, 4])
plt.bar(index[0], values[0], color='r')
plt.bar(index[1], values[1], color='k')
plt.bar(index[2], values[2], color='y')
plt.bar(index[3], values[3], color='b')
return plt.savefig('foo.png')
def aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=0.1, number=1, local_limit=0,
percent_vaccinated_people=0.01, WIDTH=2000, HEIGHT=2000,
show=False, info=False):
TILE = 40
if show:
WIDTH = 500
HEIGHT = 500
TILE = 10
pygame.init()
RES = WIDTH, HEIGHT
surface = pygame.display.set_mode((1000, 500))
surf_left = pygame.Surface((200, 150))
surf_left.fill((0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(surf_left, (50, 25))
clock = pygame.time.Clock()
W, H = WIDTH // TILE, HEIGHT // TILE
FPS = 100 # скорость протекания игры
n = 5 # количество состояний
# 0 - жив/ мёртв
# 1 - болен
# 2 - абсолютный иммунитет
# 3 - вакцинирован
# 4 - переболел
states = np.zeros((n, H, W))
# 0 - время болезни
# 1 - время вакцины
# 2 - время после болезни
times = np.zeros((3, H, W))
generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun, percent_vaccinated_people)
iter_count = 1
while iter_count <= 365:
generate_left_border(states)
if show:
visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE)
green = 2500 - yellow - red - blue - black
f1 = pygame.font.SysFont('arial', 24)
text0 = f1.render('День № ' + str(iter_count), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text0, (510, 20))
text1 = f1.render('Заболело ' + str(red), True, (255, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text1, (510, 50))
text2 = f1.render('Умерло ' + str(black), True, (0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text2, (510, 80))
text3 = f1.render('Обладают временным иммунитетом ' + str(yellow),
True, (255, 255, 0))
surface.blit(text3, (510, 110))
text4 = f1.render('Обладают абсолютным иммунитетом ' + str(blue),
True, (0, 0, 255))
surface.blit(text4, (510, 140))
text5 = f1.render('Здоровы ' + str(green), True, (0, 180, 0))
surface.blit(text5, (510, 170))
gist(red, black, yellow, blue)
png = pygame.image.load('foo.png')
surface.blit(png, ((510, 230)))
pygame.display.flip()
clock.tick(FPS)
update_cell(states, times, local_limit)
if np.max(states[1][H - 1]) == 1:
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, 1)
return False
iter_count += 1
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_limit)
return True
def calculate_critical_value(number=0, local_limit=1, eps=0.00001, info=True):
start, current, end = 0, 0.5, 1
i = 0
while abs(start - end) >= eps:
i += 1
if not (aviabillity_of_leak(number=number, local_limit=local_limit,
add_abs_imun=current, info=info)):
current, start = (current + end) / 2, current
else:
current, end = (start + current) / 2, current
return current
def calculate_average_critical_value(local_limit, repeats=1, eps=0.001):
critical_value = sum([calculate_critical_value(number=i, local_limit=local_limit)
for i in range(repeats)]) / repeats
return critical_value
# %%
def aviabillity_of_leak_repeats(add_abs_imun=0.05, local_limit=1, repeat=10):
data = {"вероятность заражения при контакте": [],
"вероятность смерти во время болезни": [],
"процент людей с иммунитетои": [],
"число локальных контактов": [],
"население": [], "число живых": [],
"процент мёртвых": []}
global df
df = pd.DataFrame(data=data)
[aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=add_abs_imun, local_limit=local_limit,
info=True) for _ in range(repeat)]
info.loc[len(info)] = (df.mean()).tolist()
aviabillity_of_leak(show=True, info=True)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
def gist(red, black, yellow, blue):
index = [0, 1, 2, 3]
values = [red, black, yellow, blue]
# plt.ylim([0, 1500])
# plt.xlim([0, 4])
plt.bar(index[0], values[0], color='r')
plt.bar(index[1], values[1], color='k')
plt.bar(index[2], values[2], color='y')
plt.bar(index[3], values[3], color='b')
return plt.savefig('foo.png')
def aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=0.1, number=1, local_contact=0.5, #я туууууут нахуй измени меня на 0.5
percent_vaccinated_people=0.01, WIDTH=2000, HEIGHT=2000,
show=False, info=False):
TILE = 40 # было 40
if show:
WIDTH = 500
HEIGHT = 500 #### тут было по 500
TILE = 10 # было 10
pygame.init()
RES = WIDTH, HEIGHT
surface = pygame.display.set_mode((1000, 500))
surf_left = pygame.Surface((200, 150))
surf_left.fill((0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(surf_left, (50, 25))
clock = pygame.time.Clock()
W, H = WIDTH // TILE, HEIGHT // TILE
FPS = 100 # скорость протекания игры
n = 5 # количество состояний
# 0 - жив/ мёртв
# 1 - болен
# 2 - абсолютный иммунитет
# 3 - вакцинирован
# 4 - переболел
states = np.zeros((n, H, W))
# 0 - время болезни
# 1 - время вакцины
# 2 - время после болезни
times = np.zeros((3, H, W))
generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun, percent_vaccinated_people)
iter_count = 1
while iter_count <= 365:
generate_left_border(states)
if show:
visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE)
f1 = pygame.font.SysFont('arial', 20)
text0 = f1.render('День № ' + str(iter_count), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text0, (510, 20))
text1 = f1.render('Заболело ' + str(red), True, (255, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text1, (510, 40))
text2 = f1.render('Умерло ' + str(black), True, (0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text2, (510, 60))
text3 = f1.render('Обладают временным иммунитетом ' + str(yellow),
True, (255, 255, 0))
surface.blit(text3, (510, 80))
text4 = f1.render('Обладают абсолютным иммунитетом ' + str(blue),
True, (0, 0, 255))
surface.blit(text4, (510, 100))
text5 = f1.render('Здоровы ' + str(green), True, (0, 180, 0))
surface.blit(text5, (510, 120))
gist(red, black, yellow, blue)
png = pygame.image.load('foo.png')
surface.blit(png, ((510, 180)))
pygame.display.flip()
clock.tick(FPS)
update_cell(states, times, local_contact)
if np.max(states[1][H - 1]) == 1:
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, 0.5)
return False
iter_count += 1
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_contact)
return True
# %%
def aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=0.1, number=0, local_contact=1,
percent_vaccinated_people=0.1, WIDTH=2000, HEIGHT=2000,
show=False, info=False):
TILE = 40
if show:
WIDTH = 500
HEIGHT = 500
TILE = 10
pygame.init()
RES = WIDTH, HEIGHT
surface = pygame.display.set_mode((1000, 500))
surf_left = pygame.Surface((200, 150))
surf_left.fill((0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(surf_left, (50, 25))
clock = pygame.time.Clock()
W, H = WIDTH // TILE, HEIGHT // TILE
FPS = 100 # скорость протекания игры
n = 5 # количество состояний
# 0 - жив/ мёртв
# 1 - болен
# 2 - абсолютный иммунитет
# 3 - вакцинирован
# 4 - переболел
states = np.zeros((n, H, W))
# 0 - время болезни
# 1 - время вакцины
# 2 - время после болезни
times = np.zeros((3, H, W))
generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun, percent_vaccinated_people)
iter_count = 1
while iter_count <= 100:
generate_left_border(states)
if show:
visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE)
size = WIDTH * HEIGHT // 100
f1 = pygame.font.SysFont('arial', 20)
text0 = f1.render('День № ' + str(iter_count), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text0, (510, 20))
text6 = f1.render('Население ' + str(size), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text6, (510, 40))
text1 = f1.render('Заболело ' + str(red), True, (255, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text1, (510, 60))
text2 = f1.render('Умерло ' + str(black), True, (0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text2, (510, 80))
text3 = f1.render('Обладают временным иммунитетом ' + str(yellow),
True, (255, 255, 0))
surface.blit(text3, (510, 100))
text4 = f1.render('Обладают абсолютным иммунитетом ' + str(blue),
True, (0, 0, 255))
surface.blit(text4, (510, 120))
text5 = f1.render('Здоровы ' + str(green), True, (0, 180, 0))
surface.blit(text5, (510, 140))
gist(red, black, yellow, blue)
png = pygame.image.load('foo.png')
surface.blit(png, ((510, 180)))
pygame.display.flip()
clock.tick(FPS)
update_cell(states, times, local_contact)
iter_count += 1
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_contact)
return True
# %%
aviabillity_of_leak(show=True, info=True)
вакцина
def aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=0.1, number=0,
local_contact=1,
percent_vaccinated_people=0.5,
WIDTH=2000, HEIGHT=2000, show=False,
info=False):
TILE = 40
if show:
WIDTH = 500
HEIGHT = 500
TILE = 10
pygame.init()
RES = WIDTH, HEIGHT
surface = pygame.display.set_mode((1000, 500))
surf_left = pygame.Surface((200, 150))
surf_left.fill((0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(surf_left, (50, 25))
clock = pygame.time.Clock()
W, H = WIDTH // TILE, HEIGHT // TILE
FPS = 100 # скорость протекания игры
n = 5 # количество состояний
# 0 - жив/ мёртв
# 1 - болен
# 2 - абсолютный иммунитет
# 3 - вакцинирован
# 4 - переболел
states = np.zeros((n, H, W))
# 0 - время болезни
# 1 - время вакцины
# 2 - время после болезни
times = np.zeros((3, H, W))
generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun,
percent_vaccinated_people)
iter_count = 1
while iter_count <= 100:
generate_left_border(states)
if show:
visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE)
size = WIDTH * HEIGHT // 100
f1 = pygame.font.SysFont('arial', 20)
text0 = f1.render('День № ' + str(iter_count), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text0, (510, 20))
text6 = f1.render('Население ' + str(size), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text6, (510, 40))
text1 = f1.render('Заболело ' + str(red), True, (255, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text1, (510, 60))
text2 = f1.render('Умерло ' + str(black), True, (0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text2, (510, 80))
text3 = f1.render('Обладают временным иммунитетом ' + str(yellow),
True, (255, 255, 0))
surface.blit(text3, (510, 100))
text4 = f1.render('Обладают абсолютным иммунитетом ' + str(blue),
True, (0, 0, 255))
surface.blit(text4, (510, 120))
text5 = f1.render('Здоровы ' + str(green), True, (0, 180, 0))
surface.blit(text5, (510, 140))
text7 = f1.render('Процент вакцинированных ' + str(percent_vaccinated_people * 100) + '%',
True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text7, (510, 160))
gist(red, black, yellow, blue)
png = pygame.image.load('foo.png')
surface.blit(png, ((510, 180)))
pygame.display.flip()
clock.tick(FPS)
update_cell(states, times, local_contact)
iter_count += 1
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_contact)
return True
# %%
aviabillity_of_leak(show=True, info=True)
локальные
контакты
def aviabillity_of_leak(add_abs_imun=0.1, number=0,
local_contact=0.8,
percent_vaccinated_people=0.45,
WIDTH=2000, HEIGHT=2000, show=False,
info=False):
TILE = 40
if show:
WIDTH = 500
HEIGHT = 500
TILE = 10
pygame.init()
RES = WIDTH, HEIGHT
surface = pygame.display.set_mode((1000, 500))
surf_left = pygame.Surface((200, 150))
surf_left.fill((0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(surf_left, (50, 25))
clock = pygame.time.Clock()
W, H = WIDTH // TILE, HEIGHT // TILE
FPS = 100 # скорость протекания игры
n = 5 # количество состояний
# 0 - жив/ мёртв
# 1 - болен
# 2 - абсолютный иммунитет
# 3 - вакцинирован
# 4 - переболел
states = np.zeros((n, H, W))
# 0 - время болезни
# 1 - время вакцины
# 2 - время после болезни
times = np.zeros((3, H, W))
generate_imun(states, add_abs_imun,
percent_vaccinated_people)
iter_count = 1
while iter_count <= 100:
generate_left_border(states)
if show:
visualisation(states, surface, WIDTH, HEIGHT, TILE)
size = WIDTH * HEIGHT // 100
f1 = pygame.font.SysFont('arial', 20)
text0 = f1.render('День № ' + str(iter_count), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text0, (510, 20))
text6 = f1.render('Население ' + str(size), True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text6, (510, 40))
text1 = f1.render('Заболело ' + str(red), True, (255, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text1, (510, 60))
text2 = f1.render('Умерло ' + str(black), True, (0, 0, 0))
surface.blit(text2, (510, 80))
text3 = f1.render('Обладают временным иммунитетом ' + str(yellow),
True, (255, 255, 0))
surface.blit(text3, (510, 100))
text4 = f1.render('Обладают абсолютным иммунитетом ' + str(blue),
True, (0, 0, 255))
surface.blit(text4, (510, 120))
text5 = f1.render('Здоровы ' + str(green), True, (0, 180, 0))
surface.blit(text5, (510, 140))
text7 = f1.render('Процент ограничений ' + str(local_contact * 100) + '%',
True, (128, 128, 128))
surface.blit(text7, (510, 160))
gist(red, black, yellow, blue)
png = pygame.image.load('foo.png')
surface.blit(png, ((510, 180)))
pygame.display.flip()
clock.tick(FPS)
update_cell(states, times, local_contact)
iter_count += 1
if info:
create_info(number, states, add_abs_imun, local_contact)
return True
# %%
aviabillity_of_leak(show=True, info=True)