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import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from alpha_vantage.timeseries import TimeSeries
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

# Alpha Vantage API credentials
api_key = "YOUR_API_KEY"
ts = TimeSeries(key=api_key, output_format="pandas")

# Fetch stock data
stock_data, meta_data = ts.get_daily(symbol="MSFT", outputsize="full")

# Calculate technical indicators
stock_data["SMA_50"] = stock_data["Close"].rolling(window=50).mean()
stock_data["EMA_20"] = stock_data["Close"].ewm(span=20, adjust=False).mean()

# Prepare data for ML model
X = stock_data.drop(["Close"], axis=1)
y = stock_data["Close"]

# Split data into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

# Train a simple Random Forest Regressor model
model = RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Make predictions on the test set
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)

# Evaluate the model
mse = np.mean((y_pred - y_test) ** 2)
print(f"Mean Squared Error: {mse:.2f}")