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csharp
a year ago
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public static double CalculateHorseRaceEV( double backOdds, // Decimal odds for the horse to win double top2Odds, // Decimal odds for the horse to finish in the top 2 double stake, // The stake amount double layOdds, // Decimal odds for laying the horse double commissionRate, // The commission rate for winning lay bets double underlayFactor // Underlay factor (1 for normal laying, < 1 for underlaying) ) { // Calculate the probabilities from the odds double probabilityWin = 1 / backOdds; double probabilityTop2 = 1 / top3Odds; double probability2nd = probabilityTop2 - probabilityWin; double probabilityLose = 1 - probabilityTop2; // Calculate the potential returns double payoutWin = stake * (backOdds - 1); double bonus = stake * 0.8; double loss = -stake; // Calculate the lay stake, adjust for underlaying double layStake = (underlayFactor * stake * (backOdds - 1)) / (layOdds - commissionRate); // Calculate the returns for lay bet double layWinProfit = layStake * (1 - commissionRate); double layLoss = -layStake * (layOdds - 1); // Calculate the EV considering the lay and back bets double ev = (probabilityWin * (payoutWin - layLoss)) + (probability2nd * (bonus - layLoss)) + (probabilityLose * (loss + layWinProfit)); return ev; }
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